from Instagram to YouTube, these are the apps that could benefit the most from the closure of the platform

It has finally been confirmed: the Supreme Court of the United States has upheld the law that orders the closure of TikTok, the most popular app among young people. Technically, the legal text allows the social network to remain accessible in the country, as long as its assets are sold to an American company; However, the priority for TikTok was to appeal the law to justice and not to look for a possible buyer, and at this point, it’s too late to save the platform.

The Supreme Court’s decision means that TikTok has until next Sunday, January 19, to comply with the law, something clearly now impossible; The company, owned by the Chinese giant Bytedance, has confirmed its intention to close access to the platform if the legal appeal is not successful. Therefore, in the absence of a miracle, everything indicates that TikTok will close in the United States next Sunday; a ‘miracle’ that seems more likely with each passing hour.

Despite being the main supporter of the law, the Biden administration prefers not to close the legislature with a controversy like this, which could tarnish the president’s work on the ceasefire in Gaza. Joe Biden could simply not execute the rule he signed at the time, and allow TikTok to remain accessible in the United States, leaving the ‘hot potato’ in the hands of his successor, Donald Trump. In that case, the future of TikTok would be a mystery: Trump has praised and criticized the law that bans TikTok in equal measure, but its approval among the young electorate if he presents himself as their savior could tip the balance.

Instagram, natural rival

In the event that TikTok is finally shut down next Sunday in the United States, many users will regret it; but at the same time, his rivals will celebrate. And TikTok has achieved what the main technology companies have been trying for years: connect with young audiencessome 170 million monthly users who will look for a new home for their ‘memes’ and short videos, and they will not lack alternatives.

According to a recent TD Cowen survey published by The New York TimesAmerican users are considering three possibilities in case TikTok closes. The most popular alternative is Instagram, which could attract 29% of TikTok users; In fact, Meta itself would have organized an emergency plan to prepare the servers and the advertising platform to receive a large flow of users in the coming days.

The choice of Instagram makes sense, being already one of the most popular social networks; But especially, it is one of those that has copied TikTok the most, and that work can bear fruit now. One of the most popular features of Instagram are the Reels, short TikTok-style videos that offer a very similar experience; And it’s no coincidence that Instagram recently updated Reels with new features, like the ability to see which friends have ‘Liked’ videos. In addition, Instagram would be working on an update to Threads, its alternative app to X, with the option to include music in videos uploaded to the platform, one of TikTok’s most popular features.

However, Instagram’s triumph as TikTok’s successor is not assured. User communities couldn’t be more differentand few content creators have made the leap between platforms; Instagram has attracted its own creators, with their own style independent of TikTok.

YouTube and the weight of the community

Therefore, the real winner may be YouTube, which could attract 23% of TikTok users. It’s been almost 5 years since Google launched YouTube Shorts, a new short video format recorded vertically and aimed primarily at mobile users, as opposed to traditional YouTube computer and large screen users.

In the last year, Shorts has gained a lot of importance within YouTube, with new features such as the expansion to 3-minute videos; Although TikTok is famous for its short videos, it has gradually expanded to videos of up to 10 minutes. YouTube could be the one better prepared to receive the flow of TikTok usersboth in the technical aspect and in that of the user community. This same week, the company reportedly organized a ‘camp’ for TikTok content creators, where it taught them how to take advantage of the platform and prepare for the migration. If YouTube Shorts manages to attract content creators, users will follow, with an already existing community that is somewhat more similar.

That’s not the only way Google will benefit from TikTok’s shutdown. This same week Statcounter revealed that the market share of Google’s search engine had fallen below 90% for the first time since 2015; and a good part of the blame lies with TikTok, which has become the default search engine for many young people, who would inevitably return to Google.

However, YouTube and Google do not have it all; according to T.D. Cowen, Instagram is the favorite of advertiserswith 59% preferring the Meta platform to do business. Content creators can go where the money is, and if they get more sponsorships and advertising impressions, Instagram seems like the best alternative.

From Pinterest to RedNote

Instagram and YouTube are not the only platforms with a lot to gain. Pinterest could be the most surprising beneficiaryaccording to a study by Stucky shared by the Financial Post. Although Pinterest is a platform focused on sharing and cataloging images, the latest updates have brought it closer to how TikTok works, especially when it comes to product sales through the platform.

Although it may seem strange, the big winner of the closure of TikTok could be China; specifically, alternative apps to TikTok that have very similar communities. In fact, many users have not waited for TikTok to close, and have already migrated to RedNote, one of the most popular similar apps that can be used outside of China.

In reality, RedNote was born as a Chinese alternative to Instagram, but the platform has welcomed the ‘immigrants’ of TikTok with a lot of force. Social networks have been filled with videos and images showing Chinese users interacting with Americans, with jokes and memes as a common point.

The irony of the matter is that RedNote is an app designed for China, and as such, it is exactly what the US government accused TikTok of: a platform full of censorship and propaganda in favor of the Chinese government. Among the prohibited terms are those related to the LGTBI community, in addition to the Tiananmen massacre, and extends to issues such as Taiwan’s membership in China. By banning Tiktok, the US government may have driven many users to a platform more directly controlled by Beijing.